Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Each composes two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
